United States central bankers see a “sustained expansion” ahead for the country’s economy, with the full impact of recent interest rate cuts still to be felt and low unemployment boosting household spending, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday in remarks that brushed aside any worries of a looming slowdown.
“The baseline outlook remains favourable,” and the current level of interest rates “appropriate”, Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery to the US Congress Joint Economic Committee, a panel that includes some members from Congress’s House of Representatives and Senate.
Powell’s comments tracked closely with those in his news conference last month after the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US, cut rates for the third time this year and signalled it was likely done reducing borrowing costs absent a significant change in the economic outlook.
Despite “noteworthy risks” including slowing global growth and fallout from the US-China trade war, Powell said in his prepared remarks that he and his colleagues “see a sustained expansion of economic activity … as most likely”. His comments were for a hearing scheduled to begin at 11am EST (16:00 GMT).
There was little market reaction to the prepared remarks.
Investors have largely accepted the Fed’s intent to keep interest rates on hold well into next year. New data on Wednesday showed US consumer prices rising by the most in seven months in October, consistent with the Fed’s expectation that the pace of price increases will rise to its two percent target.
“What investors see is an economy that’s not too hot and not too cold. The Fed seems to see it that way too, so right now, Fed and investor interests are aligned,” said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey.
Powell’s opening remarks did come with a caveat: In the event that a downturn does take hold, elected officials will need to be prepared to fight it with fiscal policy, and that may be hard given that federal debt is “on an unsustainable path”.
“High and rising debt … could restrain fiscal policymakers’ willingness or ability to support economic activity during a downturn,” Powell said in comments that wade into a controversial and evolving debate over how much government borrowing is sustainable.
Some economists argue there is much more room than thought, while others feel that the return to $1 trillion annual federal deficits under the administration of US President Donald Trump will cause trouble eventually.
But there is broad agreement that in a serious recession, the Fed may also be constrained. Interest rates are low by historical standards, leaving little room to stimulate the economy with rate cuts alone, and there is debate about how effective other Fed tools may be in the future.
After three rate cuts this year, the Fed signalled at its policy meeting last month that it was likely done for now, leaving its overnight target interest rate in a range of between 1.50 percent and 1.75 percent.
Powell repeated in his testimony that the Fed was unlikely to use its remaining capacity to cut rates unless there is a “material reassessment of our outlook”.
The rate cuts – which came during a year of Trump hectoring Powell and the Fed for lower borrowing costs but also during a time when there was evidence of slowing growth in key sectors like manufacturing – were approved “to provide some insurance against ongoing risks”, Powell said. The full impact, which may already be showing up in stronger housing activity, “will be realised over time,” he said.
“We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labour market, and inflation near our symmetric two percent objective,” Powell said.